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Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball - Self-Study Course

Catégorie: Formation

Format: Formation individualisée sur DVD/CD

Autres formats:

Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball will teach you the basics of Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball, how to gain insights from simulation results, and the best ways to present your findings. This course was created in partnership with Dr. John M. Charnes, former professor at the University of Kansas School of Business. Starting with an overview of spreadsheet simulation, the course answers the question of why risk analysis is vital to the decision-making process, and how to use Crystal Ball to obtain and communicate your simulation results. The lesson units include software tips and application ideas, as well as periodic tests and exercises to help solidify the concepts. The course also contains four exercise models that help you to apply risk analysis to such areas as cost estimation, portfolio allocation, design analysis, and cash flow analysis.

You will need Crystal Ball 7 or later to run this course . The course has been developed using version 7 and the functions available in this version have been included.

Learn to:

Use Crystal Ball Assumptions, Decision Variables, and Forecasts
Understand basic probability and statistics concepts
Fit distributions to historical data, Correlate assumptions
Perform tornado and sensitivity analysis
Apply statistical controls to the simulation
Use a decision table, Interpret and present results

Compétences acquises

Design simulation models of realistic situations
Select appropriate probability distributions as inputs
Use Crystal Ball to make better decisions

Apply basic statistical concepts to simulation outputs
Communicate CB results effectively

Qui peut en profiter

Business Analysts

End Users

Préalables

Introductory understanding of Excel and competence with Windows operating systems

Basic knowledge of probability and statistics

Ce cours autoformation est certifiÃ© par le .

Oracle University a nommÃ© ExitCertified Partenaire de lâ€™annÃ©e 2011

Il y a une diffÃ©rence....dÃ©couvrez-la.

Code:	D70418
Format:	Formation individualisée sur DVD/CD

Durée:
Certifié par:	Oracle

Frais d’inscription (CAD): 736$

Oracle University Awards ExitCertified the North American Partner of the Year Award for 2011

Formation de Oracle (3027 cours)

Formation de Hyperion (126 cours)

Formation de Crystal Ball (8 cours)

Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball - Self-Study Course Contenu détaillé

Welcome

Welcome
What is Crystal Ball
Who is Using Crystal Ball
Oracle Company Background
Course Objectives
How to Use This Course
Course System Requirements
Crystal Ball System Requirements

Getting Started

Getting Started
Learning Objectives
CB in Action
Setting up CB and this Course
How to Open the Example Models
Run and Reset Icons
Exercise 2.1
Solution to Exercise 2.1

Overview of Simulation

Overview of Simulation
Deterministic Models
Learning Objectives
Traditional Approaches for Handling Uncertainty
Sensitivity Charts Icon
Sensitivity Analysis
Run Preferences Icon
Simulation Strengths and Weaknesses

Understanding CB Forecasts

Understanding CB Forecasts
Learning Objectives
CB Toolbar Quiz
Forecast Window
Statistics View
Summary

Introduction to CB Assumptions

Introduction to CB Assumptions
Learning Objectives
Define Assumption Icon
Crystal Ball Distribution Gallery
Binomial Distribution
Summary

Simulation Modeling Process

Simulation Modeling Process
Learning Objectives
Identify Problem
Build/Revise Model
Add/Revise Assumptions
Single Step Icon
Analyze Forecasts
Sensitivity Analysis

Basic Distributions

Basic Distributions
Learning Objectives
Distribution Gallery
Relative Probability
Using the Custom Load Data Button
Preferences
Entering Numeric Values and Absolute Cell References
Parameters

Additional CB Distributions

Additional CB Distributions
Learning Objectives
Distribution Gallery
Negative Binomial
Rayleigh
Max Extreme Value
Min Extreme Value
Summary

Fitting Distributions Data

Fitting Distributions Data
Learning Objectives
Random Processes
First-Order Autocorrelation
CB Predictor
Using the Fit Button
Skipped Distributions
Comparison Chart

Correlation Between Assumptions

Correlation Between Assumptions
Learning Objectives
Correlation Coefficient
Enter Ranges to Calculate Correlation
Calculated Correlation
Correlated Assumptions
Correlation Matrix Tool

Controlling the Simulation

Controlling the Simulation
Learning Objectives
Run Preferences Dialog
Specifying Precision
Latin Hypercube vs. Monte Carlo Sampling
Speed Tab
Options Tab
Statistics Tab

Sensitivity and Tornado Analysis

Sensitivity and Tornado Analysis
Learning Objectives
Sensitivity and Tornado Charts
Sensitivity and Uncertainty
Understanding the Sensitivity Chart
Sensitivity Chart Views
Sensitivity as Contribution to Variance
Specify Input Variables

Decision Table Tool

Decision Table Tool
Decision Variables and the Decision Table Tool
Using the Decision Table Tool
Select One or Two Decisions
Decision Table Tool Output Worksheet
Decision Table Trend Chart
Decision Table Overlay Chart
Decision Table Forecast Charts

Presentation of Results

Presentation of Results
Learning Objectives
Overlay Chart Icon
Outline Charts
Choose Trend Charts Forecasts
Time-Series Plot
Creating a Report
Restoring a Crystal Ball Simulation

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